[Federal Register: January 13, 2005 (Volume 70, Number 9)]
[Proposed Rules]               
[Page 2469-2514]
From the Federal Register Online via GPO Access [wais.access.gpo.gov]
[DOCID:fr13ja05-31]                         


[[Page 2469]]

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Part II





Consumer Product Safety Commission





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16 CFR Parts 1633 and 1634



Standard for the Flammability (Open Flame) of Mattresses and Mattress/
Foundation Sets; Standard To Address Open Flame Ignition of Bedclothes; 
Proposed Rules


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CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY COMMISSION

16 CFR Part 1633

 
Standard for the Flammability (Open Flame) of Mattresses and 
Mattress/Foundation Sets; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking

AGENCY: Consumer Product Safety Commission.

ACTION: Notice of proposed rulemaking.

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SUMMARY: The Commission is proposing a flammability standard under the 
authority of the Flammable Fabrics Act that would address open flame 
ignition of mattresses and mattress and foundation sets (``mattresses/
sets''). The Commission currently has a flammability standard that 
addresses ignition of mattresses by cigarettes. However, that standard 
does not address mattress fires ignited by open flames. The proposed 
standard sets performance requirements based on research conducted by 
the National Institute of Standards and Technology (``NIST''). 
Mattresses/sets that comply with the proposed requirements will 
generate a smaller size fire, thus reducing the possibility of 
flashover occurring. These improved mattresses should result in 
significant reductions in deaths and injuries associated with mattress 
fires. Due to the interaction of mattresses and bedclothes discussed 
herein, elsewhere in today's Federal Register the Commission is 
publishing an advance notice of proposed rulemaking to begin rulemaking 
on bedclothes.

DATES: Written comments in response to this document must be received 
by the Commission not later than March 29, 2005. Comments on elements 
of the proposed rule that, if issued in final form would constitute 
collection of information requirements under the Paperwork Reduction 
Act, may be filed with the Office of Management and Budget (``OMB'') 
and with the Commission. Comments will be received by OMB until March 
14, 2005.

ADDRESSES: Comments should be filed by email to cpsc-os@cpsc.gov. 
Comments also may be filed by telefacsimile to (301)504-0127 or mailed, 
preferably in five copies, to the Office of the Secretary, Consumer 
Product Safety Commission, Washington, DC 20207-0001, or delivered to 
the Office of the Secretary, Consumer Product Safety Commission, Room 
502, 4330 East-West Highway, Bethesda, Maryland; telephone (301) 504-
7530. Comments should be captioned ``Mattress NPR.''
    Comments to OMB should be directed to the Desk Officer for the 
Consumer Product Safety Commission, Office of Information and 
Regulatory Affairs, OMB, Washington, DC 20503. The Commission asks 
commenters to provide copies of such comments to the Commission's 
Office of the Secretary, with a caption or cover letter identifying the 
materials as comments submitted to OMB on the proposed collection of 
information requirements for the proposed mattress standard.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Margaret Neily, Directorate for 
Engineering Sciences, Consumer Product Safety Commission, Washington, 
DC 20207; telephone (301) 504-7530.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

A. Background

    On October 11, 2001, the Commission issued an advance notice of 
proposed rulemaking (``ANPR'') concerning the open flame ignition of 
mattresses/bedding. 66 FR 51886. The ANPR was the result of the staff's 
evaluation of fire data over the course of several years and petitions 
filed by Whitney Davis, director of the Children's Coalition for Fire-
Safe Mattresses (``CCFSM''). Although the Commission has an existing 
mattress flammability standard that addresses ignition by cigarettes, 
16 CFR Part 1632, no current Commission standard directly addresses 
open flame ignition of mattresses. The most common open flame sources 
are lighters, candles and matches. The Commission is now issuing a 
notice of proposed rulemaking (``NPR'') proposing a flammability 
standard to address open flame ignition of mattresses.\1\
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    \1\ Commissioner Thomas H. Moore issued a statement, a copy of 
which is available from the Commission's Office of the Secretary or 
from the Commission's Web site, www.cpsc.gov.

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    Characteristics of mattress/bedding fires. A burning mattress 
generally provides the biggest fuel load in a typical bedroom fire. 
Once the mattress ignites, the fire develops rapidly creating dangerous 
flashover conditions. Flashover is the point at which the entire 
contents of a room are ignited simultaneously by radiant heat, making 
conditions in the room untenable and safe exit from the room 
impossible. At flashover, room temperatures typically exceed 600-800 C 
(approximately 1100-1470 F). In these conditions, carbon monoxide 
rapidly increases, and oxygen is rapidly depleted. Mattress fires that 
lead to flashover are responsible for about two-thirds of all mattress 
fatalities. This accounts for nearly all of the fatalities that occur 
outside the room where the fire originated and about half of the 
fatalities that occur within the room of origin. A mattress that 
reduces the likelihood of reaching flashover could significantly reduce 
deaths and injuries associated with bedroom fires. [1&2] \2\
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    \2\ Numbers in brackets refer to documents listed at the end of 
this notice. They are available from the Commission's Office of the 
Secretary (see ``Addresses'' section above) or from the Commission's 
Web site (http://www.cpsc.gov/library/foia/foia.html).

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    The size of a fire is measured by its rate of heat release. A heat 
release rate of approximately 1,000 kilowatts (``kW'') leads to 
flashover in a typical room. Tests of twin size mattresses of 
traditional construction (complying with the existing mattress standard 
in 16 CFR 1632) without bedclothes have measured peak heat release 
rates that exceeded 2,000 kW in less than 5 minutes. Tests of 
traditional king size mattresses measured nearly double that peak rate 
of heat release. [2]
    Fire modeling and available test data show that as a room fire 
grows, a layer of accumulating hot gases and smoke thickens downward 
from the ceiling. For fires exceeding 600 kW, this layer typically 
descends to less than three feet from the floor. Heat release rates 
exceeding 500 kW are generally considered to pose a serious threat of 
incapacitation and of igniting nearby items. [2]
    The objective of the proposed standard is to limit the size of 
mattress/bedding fires to below 1,000 kW for a period of time by 
reducing the heat release from the bed, specifically the mattress and 
foundation, and by reducing the likelihood that other objects in the 
room will become involved in the fire.
    Research has shown that the mattress, foundation and bedclothes 
operate as a system in bedroom fires. Often the first item ignited is 
bedclothes, which then ignite the mattress. The gas burners used in the 
proposed test method are designed to represent burning bedclothes. 
Research has indicated that bedclothes themselves can contribute 
significantly to fires, even reaching heat release rates of up to 800 
kW. [2&13] Because of the role of bedclothes in mattress fires, the 
Commission is initiating a rulemaking on bedclothes through an ANPR 
that is published elsewhere in today's Federal Register. The Commission 
received numerous comments on the mattress ANPR concerning the role of 
bedclothes and the need for a rule addressing them. These comments are 
discussed in section J of this document.

[[Page 2471]]

    NIST research. The industry's Sleep Products Safety Council 
(``SPSC''), an affiliate of the International Sleep Products 
Association (``ISPA''), sponsored a research program at the National 
Institute of Standards and Technology (``NIST'') to better understand 
mattress/bedding fires and establish the technological basis for future 
performance requirements of a standard. NIST has conducted extensive 
research, which has become the basis for California's open flame 
mattress standard (Technical Bulletin or ``TB'' 603) and for the 
Commission's proposed standard.
    The NIST research showed that a full-scale test is the most 
reliable method for measuring fire performance of mattresses/sets 
because they contain many materials in a complex construction. Because 
the order of materials, method of assembly, quantity of materials, and 
quality of construction, among other factors, can affect fire behavior, 
the complete product may perform differently in a fire than the 
individual components would. Based on its research, NIST drafted a 
full-scale test method for mattresses that uses a pair of gas burners 
to represent burning bedclothes as the ignition source. Both the 
Commission's proposed standard and California's TB 603, use this test 
method. [1&2]
    Overview of the proposed standard. With certain exceptions 
explained in section G below, the proposed standard requires 
manufacturers to test specimens of each of their mattress prototypes 
(designs) before mattresses based on that prototype may be introduced 
into commerce. If a mattress and foundation are offered for sale as a 
set, the mattress must be tested with the corresponding foundation. The 
prototype specimens are tested using a pair of gas burners as the 
ignition source. The mattress and corresponding foundation, if any, 
must not exceed a 200 kW peak heat release rate at any time during the 
30 minute test, and the total energy released must be less than 15 
megajoules (``MJ'') for the first 10 minutes of the test. The proposed 
standard is discussed in greater detail in section G of this document.

B. Statutory Authority

    This proceeding is conducted pursuant to Section 4 of the Flammable 
Fabrics Act (``FFA''), which authorizes the Commission to initiate 
proceedings for a flammability standard when it finds that such a 
standard is ``needed to protect the public against unreasonable risk of 
the occurrence of fire leading to death or personal injury, or 
significant property damage.'' 15 U.S.C. 1193(a).
    Section 4 also sets forth the process by which the Commission may 
issue a flammability standard. As required in section 4(g), the 
Commission has issued an ANPR. 66 FR 51886. 15 U.S.C. 1193(g). The 
Commission has reviewed the comments submitted in response to the ANPR 
and now is issuing a notice of proposed rulemaking (``NPR'') containing 
the text of the proposed rule along with alternatives the Commission 
has considered and a preliminary regulatory analysis. 15 U.S.C. 
1193(i). The Commission will consider comments provided in response to 
the NPR and decide whether to issue a final rule along with a final 
regulatory analysis. 15 U.S.C. 1193(j). The Commission cannot issue a 
final rule unless it makes certain findings and includes these in the 
regulation. The Commission must find: (1) If an applicable voluntary 
standard has been adopted and implemented, that compliance with the 
voluntary standard is not likely to adequately reduce the risk of 
injury, or compliance with the voluntary standard is not likely to be 
substantial; (2) that benefits expected from the regulation bear a 
reasonable relationship to its costs; and (3) that the regulation 
imposes the least burdensome alternative that would adequately reduce 
the risk of injury. 15 U.S.C. 1193(j)(2). In addition, the Commission 
must find that the standard (1) is needed to adequately protect the 
public against the risk of the occurrence of fire leading to death, 
injury or significant property damage, (2) is reasonable, 
technologically practicable, and appropriate, (3) is limited to 
fabrics, related materials or products which present unreasonable 
risks, and (4) is stated in objective terms. 15 U.S.C. 1193(b).

C. The Product

    The proposed standard applies to mattresses and mattress and 
foundation sets (``mattresses/sets''). Mattress is defined as a 
resilient material, used alone or in combination with other materials, 
enclosed in a ticking and intended or promoted for sleeping upon. This 
includes adult mattresses, youth mattresses, crib mattresses (including 
portable crib mattresses), bunk bed mattresses, futons, flip chairs 
without a permanent back or arms, sleeper chairs, and water beds and 
air mattresses if they contain upholstery material between the ticking 
and the mattress core. Mattresses used in items of upholstered 
furniture such as convertible sofa bed mattresses are also included. 
Not included as mattresses are: sleeping bags, mattress pads, or other 
items used on top of the bed, or upholstered furniture which does not 
contain a mattress. However, the Commission could decide to address 
mattress pads or other top of the bed items in its rulemaking on 
bedclothes.
    Under the proposed standard, the mattress must be tested with its 
corresponding foundation if the mattress and foundation are offered for 
sale as a set. A foundation is a ticking covered structure used to 
support a mattress.
    According to ISPA, the top four producers of mattresses and 
foundations account for almost 60 percent of total U.S. production. In 
2001, there were 639 establishments producing mattresses in the U.S. 
[10]
    Mattresses and foundations are typically sold as sets. However, 
more mattresses are sold annually than foundations; some mattresses are 
sold as replacements for existing mattresses (without a new foundation) 
or are for use in platform beds or other beds that do not require a 
foundation. ISPA estimated that the total number of U.S. conventional 
mattress shipments was 21.5 million in 2002, and is estimated to be 
22.1 million in 2003 and 22.8 million in 2004. These estimates do not 
include futons, crib mattresses, juvenile mattresses, sleep sofa 
inserts, or hybrid water mattresses. These ``non-conventional'' sleep 
surfaces are estimated to comprise about 10 percent of total annual 
shipments of all sleep products. The value of mattress and foundation 
shipments in 2002, according to ISPA, was $3.26 and $1.51 billion 
respectively. [10]
    The expected useful life of mattresses can vary substantially, with 
more expensive models generally experiencing the longest useful lives. 
Industry sources recommend replacement of mattresses after 10 to 12 
years of use, but do not specifically estimate the average life 
expectancy. In the 2001 mattress ANPR, the Commission estimated the 
expected useful life of a mattress at about 14 years. To estimate the 
number of mattresses in use for analysis of the proposed rule, the 
Commission used both a 10 year and 14 year average product life. Using 
CPSC's Product Population Model, the Commission estimates the number of 
mattresses currently in use (i.e., in 2004) to be 233 million 
mattresses using a ten-year average product life, and 302.6 million 
mattresses using a fourteen-year average product life. [8&10]
    According to industry sources, queen size mattresses are the most 
commonly used. In 2002, queen size mattresses were used by 34 percent 
of U.S. consumers. Twin and twin XL are used

[[Page 2472]]

by 31.2 percent of U.S. consumers, followed by full and full XL (21 
percent), king and California king (11 percent), and all other sizes 
(2.6 percent). The average manufacturing price in 2002 was $152 for a 
mattress and $86 for a foundation. Thus, the average manufacturing 
price of a mattress/foundation set was about $238 in 2002. Although 
there are no readily available data on average retail prices for 
mattress/foundation sets by size, ISPA reports that sets selling under 
$500 represent 40.7 percent of the market. Sets selling for between 
$500 and $1000 represent 39.2 percent of the market. [10]
    The top four manufacturers of mattresses and foundations operate 
about one-half of the 639 U.S. establishments producing these products. 
The remainder of the establishments are operated by smaller firms. 
According to the Statistics of U.S. Businesses Census Bureau data for 
2001, there were 557 mattress firms operating these 639 establishments. 
According to the same data source, all but twelve mattress firms had 
less than 500 employees. If one considers a firm with fewer than 500 
employees to be a small business, then 97.8 percent (557-12/557) of all 
mattress firms are small businesses. [9&10] The potential impact of the 
proposed standard on these small businesses is discussed in section M 
of this document.

D. Risk of Injury

    Annual estimates of national fires and fire losses involving 
ignition of a mattress or bedding are based on data from the U.S. Fire 
Administration's National Fire Incident Reporting System (``NFIRS'') 
and the National Fire Protection Administration's (``NFPA'') annual 
survey of fire departments. The most recent national fire loss 
estimates indicated that mattresses and bedding were the first items to 
ignite in 19,400 residential fires attended by the fire service 
annually during 1995-1999. These fires resulted in 440 deaths, 2,230 
injuries and $273.9 million in property loss each year. Of these, the 
staff considers an estimated 18,500 fires, 440 deaths, 2,160 injuries, 
and $259.5 million property loss annually to be addressable by the 
proposed standard. Addressable means the incidents were of a type that 
would be affected by the proposed standard solely based on the 
characteristics of the fire cause (i.e., a fire that ignited a mattress 
or that ignited bedclothes which in turn ignited the mattress). For 
example, an incident that involved burning bedclothes and occurred in a 
laundry room would not be considered addressable. [3]
    Among the addressable casualties, open flame fires accounted for 
about 140 deaths (32 percent) and 1,050 injuries (49 percent) annually. 
Smoking fires accounted for 210 deaths (48 percent) and about 640 
injuries (30 percent) annually. Children younger than age 15 accounted 
for an estimated 120 addressable deaths (27 percent) and 500 
addressable injuries (23 percent) annually. Adults age 65 and older 
accounted for an estimated 120 addressable deaths (27 percent) and 250 
addressable injuries (12 percent) annually. [3]

E. NIST Research

    Overview. NIST has conducted extensive research on mattress/bedding 
fires for SPSC and the Commission. SPSC sponsored several phases of 
research at NIST to gain an understanding of the complex fire scenario 
involving mattresses and to develop an effective test method to 
evaluate a mattress's performance when it is exposed to an open flame 
ignition source. The first phase of the research program, known as 
Flammability Assessment Methodology for Mattresses, involved four main 
objectives: (1) Evaluating the behavior of various combinations of 
bedclothes, (2) characterizing the heat impact imposed on a mattress by 
bedclothes, (3) developing burners to simulate burning bedclothes, and 
(4) testing the burners on different mattress designs to ensure their 
consistency. NIST's findings, published in NISTIR 6498, established the 
basis for an appropriate test method and the next phase of the research 
program. [2] \3\
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    \3\ NIST publications can be found at NIST's Web site, (http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/leaving.cgi?from=leavingFR.html&log=linklog&to=http://fire.nist.gov/bfrlpubs/
).

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    Phase 2 of the NIST research focused on (1) analyzing the hazard by 
estimating the peak rate of heat release from a mattress with an 
improved design, (2) measuring a burning mattress's ability to involve 
nearby items in the room, and (3) assessing (in a limited way) 
bedclothes and their contribution to mattress fire hazards. This 
testing used mattresses with improved flammability properties while the 
flammability properties of bedclothes remained unchanged. [2] The 
findings from Phase 2 are detailed in NIST Technical Note 1446, 
Estimating Reduced Fire Risk Resulting from an Improved Mattress 
Flammability Standard.
    Bedclothes. During phase 2, NIST conducted tests on twin and king 
size mattresses with corresponding size bedclothes. In some tests, the 
bedclothes contributed up to 400 kW to the fire. NIST had previously 
estimated that a heat release rate that may cause flashover for an 
ordinary sized room is about 1000 kW. Thus, a mattress that contributes 
more than 500 kW at the same time as bedclothes are contributing 400 kW 
could lead to flashover. NIST conducted additional tests concerning 
bedclothes for CPSC, which are discussed later in this section. [2]
    Other objects in the same room. Part of the NIST study assessed the 
potential of a bed fire to ignite other objects in the same room. Other 
objects become involved by either direct flame impingement or by fire 
generated radiation. Although the location of objects in a bedroom is 
highly variable, their potential involvement is significantly 
influenced by their shape and properties relating to ease of ignition. 
NIST concluded from this research that further reducing the heat 
release rate from the bed could reduce the potential for ignition of 
other objects and therefore reduce their contribution to the overall 
heat release rate. [2]
    Modeling. NIST used fire modeling to explore the effect that heat 
and toxic gases from bed fires can have throughout a home. Fire 
modeling is an analytical tool that uses mathematical calculations to 
predict real-world fire behavior. NIST used this modeling to 
corroborate test data exploring the predicted levels of heat and toxic 
gases for the room of origin and outside the room of origin. The 
modeling suggested that untenable fire conditions would occur within 
the room, with little difference between a small and large room, at 10 
minutes and 25 MJ. [2]
    Gas burners' correspondence to bedclothes. In addition to the 
research discussed above, NIST conducted separate studies for CPSC. One 
series of tests evaluated improved mattress designs and further 
supported the correlation between full scale mattress tests with the 
NIST gas burners and actual bedclothes. The study, NISTIR 7006-
Flammability Test of Full-Scale Mattresses: Gas Burners Versus Burning 
Bedclothes, found that mattress designs showing good performance when 
tested with burners also exhibited significantly improved performance 
when tested with burning bedclothes. [2]
    Interaction between mattresses and bedclothes. NIST's work for CPSC 
also reinforced observations from previous NIST research on the 
interaction between the mattress and bedclothes. NISTIR 7006. Tests on 
improved mattress designs with burning bedclothes as the ignition 
source tend to have two distinct heat release rate peaks. The first 
peak is predominantly

[[Page 2473]]

from the burning bedclothes, while the second is predominantly from the 
mattress and foundation. In tests of good performing mattress designs, 
NIST found the second peak (i.e., from the mattress/foundation) to be 
comparable or lower than the first peak (i.e., from the bedclothes) and 
to occur appreciably later. [2]
    Mattress size. In another study conducted by NIST in 2004 for CPSC, 
NIST found that a twin size mattress made in a design that yields a 
very low peak heat release rate (less than 50 kW) tested with gas 
burners behaves essentially the same as a queen or king size mattress 
of the same design. Mattress designs that yield a moderate heat release 
rate peak (greater than 100 kW, but less than 200 kW) tend to behave 
the same for the first 30 minutes in twin size and king size. After 
ignition with the burners, the fire is localized (i.e., its spread is 
limited) and is not affected by the mattress size. [2]
    NIST evaluated the same mattress designs and sizes with burning 
bedclothes. NIST found the mattress size to have an apparent effect 
during these tests due to the differences in the size and fuel load of 
bedclothes. In tests of ``well performing'' mattress designs with 
burning bedclothes, the early heat release rate peak when testing a 
king size mattress was triple that when testing a twin size mattress. 
This was driven by the burning bedclothes. Mattress designs that showed 
a moderate heat release rate peak when tested with gas burners resulted 
in more serious fires when tested with burning bedclothes, especially 
in king size mattresses. [2]

F. Existing Open Flame Standards

    In the mattress ANPR the staff reviewed 13 existing tests or 
standards relevant to open flame hazards associated with mattresses/
bedding. These included Technical Bulletin (``TB'') 129, TB 121, and TB 
117 from California, the Michigan Roll-up Test, and Boston Fire 
Department (``BFD'') 1X-11, as well as standards from ASTM 
International (formerly the American Society for Testing and Materials) 
(ASTM E-1474 and ASTM E-1590), Underwriters Laboratories (UL 1895 and 
UL 2060), the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA 264A and NFPA 
267) and the United Kingdom (British Standard (``BS'') 6807 and BS 
5852). 66 FR 51886.
    As directed by California Assembly Bill 603, California's Bureau of 
Home Furnishings and Thermal Insulation (``CBHF'') adopted Technical 
Bulletin 603 (``TB 603''), an open flame fire standard for mattresses 
and mattress/box spring sets and futons. TB 603 is expected to go into 
effect January 1, 2005 and applies to items manufactured for sale in 
California. The California standard incorporates the same test 
methodology as the Commission's proposed standard. Both are based on 
testing and research conducted at NIST. Both TB 603 and the 
Commission's proposed standard require that mattresses not exceed a 200 
kW peak heat release rate during the 30 minute test. However, the 
Commission's proposed standard requires that mattresses not exceed a 
total heat release of 15 MJ in the first ten minutes of the test, while 
TB 603 sets test criteria of 25 MJ in the first 10 minutes of the test.
    The Commission believes that the research NIST has conducted, 
discussed above, establishes the most appropriate basis for an open 
flame mattress standard. Several comments on the ANPR also expressed 
this view (see section J of this document).

G. The Proposed Standard

1. General

    The proposed standard sets forth performance requirements that each 
mattress/set must meet before being introduced into commerce. The test 
method is a full scale test based on the NIST research discussed above. 
The mattress specimen (a mattress or mattress and foundation set, 
usually in a twin size) is exposed to a pair of T shaped propane 
burners and allowed to burn freely for a period of 30 minutes. The 
burners were designed to represent burning bedclothes. Measurements are 
taken of the heat release rate from the specimen and energy generated 
from the fire. The proposed standard establishes two test criteria, 
both of which the mattress/set must meet in order to comply with the 
standard: (1) The peak rate of heat release for the mattress/foundation 
set must not exceed 200 kW at any time during the 30 minute test; and 
(2) The total heat release must not exceed 15 MJ for the first 10 
minutes of the test.

2. Scope

    The proposed standard applies to mattresses and mattress and 
foundation combinations sold as sets. Mattress is defined, as it is in 
the existing mattress standard at 16 CFR 1632, as ``a resilient 
material or combination of materials enclosed by a ticking (used alone 
or in combination with other products) intended or promoted for 
sleeping upon.'' The proposed standard lists several types of 
mattresses that are included in this definition (e.g., futons, crib 
mattresses, youth mattresses). It also refers to a glossary of terms 
where these items are further defined.
    Specifically excluded from the definition of mattress are mattress 
pads, pillows and other top of the mattress items, upholstered 
furniture which does not contain a mattress, and juvenile or other 
product pads. Mattress pads and other top of the bed items may be 
addressed in the Commission's rulemaking on bedclothes.
    Like the Commission's existing mattress standard, the proposed 
standard allows an exemption for one-of-a-kind mattresses and 
foundations if they are manufactured to fulfill a physician's written 
prescription or manufactured in accordance with comparable medical 
therapeutic specifications.

3. Test Method

    The proposed standard uses the full scale test method developed by 
NIST in the course of its research. Based on the NIST work, the 
Commission believes that a full scale test is necessary because of the 
complexities of mattress construction. Testing individual components 
will not necessarily reveal the likely fire performance of the complete 
mattress.
    Under the proposed standard, the specimen (a mattress and 
corresponding foundation if they are to be offered for sale together as 
a set) is exposed to a pair of T-shaped gas burners. The specimen is to 
be no smaller than twin size, unless the largest size mattress or set 
produced of that type is smaller than twin size, in which case the 
largest size must be tested.
    The burners impose a specified local heat flux simultaneously to 
the top and side of the mattress/set for a specified period of time (70 
seconds for the top burner and 50 seconds for the side burner). The 
burners were designed to represent the local heat flux imposed on a 
mattress by burning bedclothes. The heat flux and burner duration were 
derived from data obtained from burning a wide range of bedding items. 
As discussed above, NIST test results using the burners have been shown 
to correlate with results obtained with bedclothes.
    The proposed standard allows the test to be conducted either in an 
open calorimeter or test room configuration. Tests have shown that 
either configuration is acceptable. Although room effects (i.e., the 
size and characteristics of the room) can be a factor in mattress 
flammability performance, test data show that room effects do not 
become an issue until a fire reaches about 300 to 400 kW.

[[Page 2474]]

Because the proposed standard limits the peak rate of heat release to 
200 kW, room effects should not be an issue in the test. Preliminary 
analysis of data from the inter-laboratory study (discussed in section 
I) does not suggest any significant differences between tests based on 
either test configuration. The NIST test method allowed a third test 
configuration, essentially a smaller test room than described in the 
proposed standard. However, in addition to safety concerns, using the 
burners in the smaller size room is awkward. Only one laboratory in the 
country uses this configuration. Therefore, the Commission decided to 
propose only the two configurations.

4. Test Criteria

    The proposed standard establishes two test criteria that the 
specimen must meet to pass the test. The peak rate of heat release must 
not exceed 200 kW at any time during the 30 minute test, and the total 
heat release must not exceed 15 MJ during the first 10 minutes of the 
test. [2&8]
    Setting the peak rate of heat release limit at 200 kW (during the 
30 minute test) ensures a less flammable mattress, reducing the 
contribution from the mattress, while taking into account that 
bedclothes and other room contents are likely to contribute to the 
fire. Numerous technologically feasible mattress designs are available 
that can meet the 200 kW criterion. Limiting the peak rate of heat 
release represents a significant improvement in performance compared to 
the 16 CFR part 1632 cigarette ignition standard for mattresses and 
will have the most impact on available escape time. A peak rate of heat 
release lower than 200 kW could limit the mattress design approaches 
that would meet the standard, thus increasing costs. [2&8] We note that 
California's TB 603 also prescribes a 200 kW peak rate of heat release.
    The proposed standard requires that the total heat release in the 
first 10 minutes of the test must not exceed 15 MJ. This early limit 
ensures that the mattress will have little involvement in the fire 
initially and provides a substantial increase in escape time by slowing 
the rate of fire growth and severity. The mattress's initial 
performance is important because if the mattress becomes significantly 
involved in the early stages of the fire, this will greatly limit the 
time a person has to escape. [2]
    The proposed 15 MJ limit in the first 10 minutes takes into account 
that bedclothes, and possibly other items, will be burning during this 
initial period and will contribute significantly to the fire. The 
Commission believes that the types of ticking (i.e, the outermost 
fabric or material that covers the mattress) currently used on 
mattresses can continue to be used with the 15 MJ/10 minute criteria. 
[2] This will allow manufacturers considerable flexibility in their 
mattress designs because they should be able to change tickings without 
affecting the mattresses performance under the test method, except in 
the unusual case where the ticking itself is part of the fire 
resistance design.
    California's TB 603 prescribes a 25 MJ limit in the first 10 
minutes of the test. However, NIST research, supported by fire 
modeling, has shown that untenable fire conditions can occur in a room 
from a fire producing 25 MJ in the first 10 minutes of a test. This 
represents the total contribution from all possibly involved items. 
That is, a fire that reaches a size of 25 MJ within 10 minutes could 
limit a person's ability to escape the room. According to the mattress 
industry and available test data, there are numerous technologically 
feasible approaches to mattress designs for meeting the proposed 15 MJ 
/first 10 minute limit. [2]
    The 30 minute test duration is related to, but not equivalent to, 
the estimated time required to permit discovery of the fire and allow 
escape under typical fire scenarios. A mattress complying with the 
proposed criteria under the 30 minute test is estimated to provide an 
adequate time for discovery of and escape from the fire under certain 
conditions or assuming the bedclothes do not contribute to the extent 
of posing a hazardous condition early in the fire. Compared to current 
scenarios, this is a substantial increase in estimated escape time. The 
effectiveness of the estimated escape time is based on timely escape 
from the potentially hazardous conditions. [2&3]
    Multiple test results indicate that a large number of mattress 
designs (using a range of fire retardant barrier technologies) can 
perform well in tests with gas burners for 30 minutes. Many of the 
tested designs are able to meet the proposed test criteria for 30 
minutes, but perform erratically after 30 minutes. The number of 
failures, test variability, and performance unreliability increases 
after 30 minutes. A substantial range of technologically feasible and 
viable solutions and design choices exist that meet the proposed test 
criteria for 30 minutes. [2] We note that California's TB 603 also 
includes a 30 minute test duration.
    The Commission considered proposing a 60 minute test duration. 
However, as discussed above, after 30 minutes, test variability 
increases, costs increase, and substantially fewer technologically 
feasible design approaches are available to meet the test. Most 
importantly, it is unclear from available data that much additional 
benefit would accrue with a 60 minute test.

5. Prototype Testing

    The proposed standard requires, with certain exceptions, that 
mattress manufacturers must test specimens representative of their 
mattress/set prototype (design) before introducing a mattress/set into 
commerce. Mattresses then produced based on the prototype mattress must 
be identical in all material aspects of their components, materials, 
and method of construction to the prototype. The term ``manufacturer'' 
is defined as ``an individual plant or factory at which mattresses and/
or mattress and foundation sets are manufactured or assembled.'' The 
definition includes importers. As in the existing mattress standard (16 
CFR part 1632), this definition refers to the establishment where the 
mattress is produced or assembled, not the company. Thus, the plant or 
factory producing or assembling the mattress/set is required to conduct 
prototype testing. This is also true for importers. However, there are 
three exceptions to this requirement.
    A manufacturer is allowed to sell a mattress/set based on a 
prototype that has not been tested if the prototype differs from a 
qualified prototype (one that has been tested and meets the criteria) 
only with respect to: (1) The mattress/foundation size (e.g twin, 
queen, king etc.); (2) the ticking, unless the qualified ticking has 
characteristics that are designed to improve the mattress's test 
performance; and/or (3) any other component, material or method of 
construction, provided that the manufacturer can show, on an 
objectively reasonable basis, that such change will not cause the 
prototype to exceed the specified test criteria. The third numbered 
option allows a manufacturer to construct and test a ``worst case'' 
prototype and rely on it to cover a range of related designs without 
having to perform additional testing. If a manufacturer chooses to take 
this approach, he/she must maintain records documenting that the 
change(s) will not cause the prototype to exceed the test criteria (see 
Sec.  1633.11(b)(4) of the proposed rule).
    When conducting prototype testing, the manufacturer must test a 
minimum of three specimens of the prototype in accordance with the test 
method

[[Page 2475]]

described, and all of the mattresses/sets must meet both of the test 
criteria discussed above. If any one prototype specimen that the 
manufacturer tests fails the specified criteria, the prototype is not 
qualified (even if the manufacturer chooses to test more than three 
specimens).
    The Commission believes that three specimens is the appropriate 
minimum number for testing. Numerous research studies have typically 
used replicates of three for tests using the developed gas burners. 
This is also the number industry has generally used as it has 
researched and developed options for meeting the requirements of 
California's TB 603. Preliminary analysis of the inter-laboratory study 
also indicates that three replicates are appropriate to accurately 
characterize mattress performance. [2] Moreover, because small changes 
in mattresses' construction or components can affect their 
flammability, testing more than one mattress will provide a better 
indication of their performance. [1]

6. Pooling

    The proposed standard allows for one or more manufacturers to rely 
on a given prototype. Under this approach, one manufacturer would 
conduct (or cause to be conducted) the full prototype testing required 
(testing three prototype specimens), obtaining passing results, and the 
other manufacturer(s) may then produce mattresses/sets represented by 
that prototype so long as they conduct one confirming test on a 
specimen they produce. If the mattress/set fails the confirming test, 
the manufacturer must take corrective measures, and then perform a new 
confirmation test that must meet the test criteria. If a confirmation 
test specimen fails to meet the test criteria, the manufacturer of that 
specimen must also notify the manufacturer of the pooled prototype 
about the test failure. Pooling may be used by two or more plants 
within the same firm or by two or more independent firms. As discussed 
in the initial regulatory flexibility analysis, pooling should reduce 
testing costs for smaller companies. Once they have conducted a 
successful confirmation test, pooling firms can produce mattresses 
based on a pooled prototype and may continue to do as long as any 
changes to the mattresses based on the pooled prototype are limited to 
the three discussed above: (1) Size of the mattress/foundation; (2) the 
ticking, unless the qualified ticking has characteristics that are 
designed to improve the mattress's test performance, and/or (3) any 
component, material or method of construction that the manufacturer can 
show (on an objectively reasonable basis) will not cause the prototype 
to exceed the specified test criteria.

7. Quality Assurance Requirements

    Research and testing indicates that small variations in 
construction of a mattress/set (e.g. missed stitching around the side 
of the mattress) can affect the fire performance of a mattress. 
Therefore, the proposed standard contains strict requirements for 
quality assurance. Each manufacturer must implement a quality assurance 
program to ensure that the mattresses/sets it produces are identical in 
all material respects to the prototype on which they are based. This 
means that at a minimum, manufacturers must: (1) Have controls in place 
on components and materials to ensure that they are identical to those 
used in the prototype; (2) designate a production lot that is 
represented by the prototype; and (3) inspect mattresses/sets produced 
for sale. The Commission is not requiring manufacturers to conduct 
testing of production mattresses. However, the Commission recognizes 
the value of such testing as part of a quality assurance program. 
Therefore, the Commission encourages manufacturers to conduct random 
testing of mattresses/sets that are produced for sale.

8. Recordkeeping

    The proposed standard requires manufacturers to maintain certain 
records to document compliance with the standard. This includes records 
concerning prototype testing, pooling and confirmation testing, and 
quality assurance procedures and any associated testing. The required 
records must be maintained for as long as mattresses/sets based on the 
prototype are in production and must be retained for three years 
thereafter.
    The purpose of these recordkeeping requirements is to enable 
manufacturers to keep track of materials, construction methods and 
testing. Thus, if a manufacturer produced a mattress/set that failed to 
meet the test criteria, he/she should be able to use the records to 
determine the prototype on which the failing mattress was based, as 
well as the components and method of construction that were used. This 
information would help the manufacturer correct the problem that caused 
the mattress to fail the test criteria.

9. Other Requirements: Labeling, One of a Kind Exemption, and Policy on 
Renovation of Mattresses

    Under the proposed standard, each mattress/set must bear a 
permanent label stating the name and location of the manufacturer, the 
month and year of manufacture, the model identification, prototype 
identification number, and a certification that the mattress complies 
with the standard. By placing the certification on the mattress, the 
manufacturer is attesting that the specific mattress would comply with 
the test criteria if tested.
    The proposed standard allows an exemption for a one-of-a-kind 
mattress/set if it is manufactured in response to a physician's written 
prescription or manufactured in accordance with comparable medical 
therapeutic specifications.
    Subpart C of the proposed standard restates the policy 
clarification on renovation of mattresses that is in Subpart C of the 
existing mattress standard (16 CFR Part 1632). The policy statement 
informs the public that mattresses renovated for sale are considered by 
the Commission to be newly manufactured for purposes of the 
requirements of the proposed standard.

H. Effectiveness Evaluation

    To determine the potential effectiveness of the proposed standard, 
CPSC staff conducted an effectiveness evaluation, focusing primarily on 
reduction of deaths and injuries. The staff's analysis is explained in 
detail in the memorandum ``Residential Fires Involving Mattresses and 
Bedding.'' [3] The evaluation was based primarily on review of CPSC 
investigation reports that provided details of the occupants' 
situations and actions during the fire. Staff reviewers identified 
criteria that affected the occupants' ability to escape the fires they 
had experienced. The staff used these criteria to estimate percentage 
reductions in deaths and injuries expected to occur under the much less 
severe fire conditions anticipated with improved designs of mattresses 
that would comply with the proposed standard. The staff then applied 
these estimated reductions to national estimates of mattress/bedding 
fire deaths and injuries to estimate numbers of deaths and injuries 
that could be prevented with the proposed standard. [3]
    As stated in section D of this document, the most recent national 
fire loss estimates indicated that mattresses and bedding were the 
first items to ignite in 19,400 residential fires attended by the fire 
service annually

[[Page 2476]]

during 1995--1999. These fires resulted in 440 deaths, 2,230 injuries 
and $273.9 million in property loss each year. Of these, the staff 
considers an estimated 18,500 fires, 440 deaths, 2,160 injuries, and 
$259.5 million property loss annually to be addressable by the proposed 
standard (i.e., of the type that the proposed standard could affect 
based on the characteristics of the fire). [3]
    Overall, CPSC staff estimates that the proposed standard may be 
expected to prevent 80 to 86 percent of the deaths and 86 to 92 percent 
of the injuries presently occurring in addressable mattress/bedding 
fires attended by the fire service. Applying these percentage 
reductions to 1998-2002 estimates of addressable mattress/bedding fire 
losses, staff estimates potential reductions of 310 to 330 deaths and 
1,660 to 1,780 injuries annually in fires attended by the fire service 
when all existing mattresses have been replaced with mattresses meeting 
the new standard. There may also be reductions in property damage 
resulting from the proposed standard, but data are not sufficient for 
the staff to quantify this impact. [3]

I. Inter-Laboratory Study

    An inter-laboratory study was conducted with the support of the 
SPSC, NIST, and participating laboratories to explore the sensitivity, 
repeatability, and reproducibility of the NIST test method. All of the 
participating labs conducted multiple tests of eight different mattress 
designs. The mattress designs varied critical elements (e.g., the 
barrier--sheet or high-loft, the type of mattress--single or double-
sided) and the style of mattress (e.g., tight or pillow top). [2]
    Preliminary analysis of the data does not suggest either 
unreasonable sensitivities (i.e., significantly different test results 
when minor variations in test procedure are made) or practical 
limitations in the test protocol. The preliminary analysis suggests 
that some mattress designs perform more consistently than others. The 
type of barrier appears to have a significant impact on the performance 
and repeatability of performance of all mattress designs tested. 
However, the uniformity of other components and the manufacturing 
process can also affect the variability in fire performance. [2]
    The inter-lab tests also appear to confirm earlier observations 
that mattresses constructed with currently available barrier 
technologies are able to limit the fire severity for a substantial but 
not indefinite time. Most of the tested mattress designs could meet the 
proposed requirements if the test ended at 30 minutes, but appeared to 
perform erratically after 30 minutes. [2]
    The preliminary analysis, supported by earlier data, suggests that 
significant variability exists among currently available mattress 
designs. Although products appear to be moving toward consistency, 
manufacturers clearly need to control components, materials, and 
methods of construction. Thus, quality assurance measures, as required 
in the proposed rule, are important. [2]
    The inter-lab study was only recently completed, and the discussion 
above is based on the staff's preliminary analysis of the results. A 
final report on the inter-lab study is expected by the end of 2004 and 
will be available to the public.

J. Response to Comments On the ANPR

    On October 11, 2001, the Commission published an ANPR in the 
Federal Register. 66 FR 51886. During the comment period, the 
Commission received sixteen written comments from businesses, 
associations and interested parties representing various segments of 
the mattress and bedding industries. After the close of the comment 
period, the Commission received a number of additional comments, 
including one from the California Bureau of Home Furnishings and 
Thermal Insulation urging the Commission to adopt California's TB 603 
as a federal standard. Significant issues raised by all of these 
comments are discussed below. [14&15]

Mattress Comments

    1. Comment. Commenters agree that the hazards associated with 
mattress fires appear to be clearly identified. All of the commenters 
support the need for an open flame standard for mattresses and 
initiation of federal rulemaking.
    Response. CPSC agrees that mattress and bedding fires continue to 
be one of the major contributors to residential fire deaths and 
civilian injuries among products within CPSC's jurisdiction. The most 
recent national fire loss estimates indicate that mattresses and 
bedding were the first items to ignite in 19,400 residential fires 
attended by the fire service annually during 1995--1999. These fires 
resulted in an estimated 440 deaths, 2,230 injuries, and $273.9 million 
property loss annually. In these fires, the bedclothes are most 
frequently ignited by a small open flame source. The burning bedding 
then creates a large open-flame source igniting the mattress and 
creating dangerous flashover conditions, the point when the entire room 
and its contents are ignited simultaneously by radiant heat.
    The proposed standard is designed to address the identified hazard 
of flashover resulting from open flame ignition of mattresses, usually 
from burning bedclothes. Under the proposed standard, mattresses and 
mattress/sets are exposed to gas burners, simulating burning 
bedclothes. Mattresses are required to meet two performance criteria 
that minimize the possibility of or delay flashover for a period of 
time. Mattresses must not exceed 200 kW peak heat release rate during 
the 30 minute test, and the total heat released must be less than 15 MJ 
for the first 10 minutes of the test.
    2. Comment. Most commenters endorsed the direction of the mattress 
flammability test development research underway at NIST and encouraged 
the CPSC to issue a technologically practicable, reasonable standard. 
More recent commenters suggest California TB 603 be adopted as the 
federal standard.
    Response. CPSC agrees with the technical approach suggested by the 
NIST research. A majority of the commenters agreed that preventing 
flashover from mattress fires would appropriately address the risk and 
that a full scale test with an ignition source comparable to burning 
bedclothes could achieve that objective. They strongly supported the 
NIST approach and discouraged the adoption of any existing standards.
    Before California's adoption of TB 603, one commenter suggested 
using a modification of the small-scale British test, BS 5852, for 
smoldering and flaming ignition of upholstered furniture seating 
composites. However, a full-scale rather than small-scale test is 
generally considered the most reliable method for measuring performance 
of a product that contains many materials in a complex construction, 
such as a mattress. NIST research confirmed that a full-scale test of 
the mattress was needed to measure its performance when exposed to 
burning bedclothes or the representative set of gas burners. NIST's 
comprehensive, scientifically based research program was designed to 
address the open-flame ignition of mattresses and bedclothes under 
controlled conditions closely resembling those of real-life fire 
scenarios. The program focused on understanding the dynamics of fires 
involving mattress and bedclothing assemblies and on developing an 
appropriate and technologically practicable methodology to effectively 
measure the hazard.
    NIST subsequently prepared a test method which the state of 
California incorporated into their TB 603,

[[Page 2477]]

``Requirements and Test Procedure for Resistance of a Mattress/Box 
Spring Set to a Large Open-Flame'' in 2004. The proposed standard is 
also based on the test method developed by NIST. Research on mattress 
and bedclothes fires conducted by NIST for CPSC and the industry 
provides the basis for the test criteria specified in the proposed 
standard. Manufacturers and suppliers have demonstrated that mattress 
designs complying with these performance criteria and suitable for the 
residential market can be produced.
    3. Comment. One commenter requested the exclusion of certain 
product categories, such as mattresses used for therapeutic reasons and 
in healthcare environments, from an open flame standard.
    Response. The proposed standard includes all mattresses, including 
those used in or as part of upholstered furniture items. ``One-of-a-
kind'' mattresses and foundations are defined as physician prescribed 
mattresses to be used in connection with the treatment or management of 
a named individual's physical illness or injury. These products may be 
exempted from testing under the proposed standard in accordance with 
the rules established by the Commission. The proposed standard requires 
them to be permanently labeled with a warning statement indicating that 
the mattress and foundation have not been tested under the standard and 
may be subject to a large fire if exposed to an open flame.
    4. Comment. In October 2003 the California Bureau of Home 
Furnishings (CBHF) urged the Commission to adopt their new standard, TB 
603. Subsequently, a number of commenters expressed written support for 
adopting the TB 603 test methodology and performance criteria.
    CBHF claimed that harmonization of California and federal standards 
would avoid a number of potential problems. They noted potential 
problems such as possible federal preemption and negative impacts on 
interstate commerce. Since TB 603 is a newly developed methodology, 
CBHF suggested that an inter-laboratory study be conducted before a 
potential adoption of TB 603 by CPSC. They noted that data obtained 
from an inter-laboratory study would verify the credibility of the test 
method.
    Response. An inter-laboratory study was conducted with the support 
of SPSC, NIST, CBHF, and other participating laboratories to collect 
additional data and confirm the test protocol developed by NIST. A 
number of laboratories participated in the study to evaluate 
sensitivity, repeatability, and reproducibility of the test protocol. 
While the final report is not yet available, preliminary analysis of 
the data does not suggest either unreasonable sensitivities or 
practical limitations in the test protocol.
    The Commission's proposed standard is similar to California's TB 
603. The proposed standard and TB 603 use the same test method and 
limit the peak rate of heat release of a mattress or mattress/
foundation to 200 kW. TB 603 also limits the size of the fire produced 
in the first 10 minutes of the test to 25 MJ. According to NIST 
research, untenable fire conditions could occur in a room from a fire 
of this size. Unlike TB 603, the staff's draft proposed standard 
requires that the mattress contribute no more than 15 MJ to the early 
fire scenario. This ensures that the mattress will have little 
involvement in the fire for the specified period of time. This lower 
limit partially compensates for the contribution of an uncertain 
combination of burning bedclothes on the bed, helping to preserve 
tenable conditions for egress.
    5. Comment. Two commenters recognize the sophistication and 
complexity of the test method used in California TB 603 and potentially 
in a federal standard. They suggest that CPSC explore laboratory 
accreditation programs to insure test labs are properly qualified to 
conduct this complex test.
    Response. The interlaboratory study may identify laboratory 
practices, equipment, and other related factors that must be controlled 
to ensure consistent and accurate test results. The report and findings 
of the study will be available to the public; and appropriate guidance 
can be provided to interested laboratories. While accrediting test 
laboratories is not a CPSC function, the Commission supports industry 
and commercial laboratory development of such a program.
    6. Comment. A commenter expressed concerns about environmental 
impact and consumer sensitivity to flame retardants that may be used in 
mattresses, whether topically applied or integrated into fibers. The 
commenter recommends requiring a label that discloses the use of flame 
retardants in the mattress and provides a source of more specific 
information.
    Response. Mattress fire performance can be improved by 
incorporating fire retardant chemicals into component materials or by 
using materials that are inherently fire resistant. Flame retardant 
chemicals are already widely used in other applications. More than one 
billion pounds of different flame retardant chemicals are currently 
used annually in the United States, including applications in many 
consumer products. There are also flame resistant (FR) materials that 
may be used for mattress barriers that have other consumer product 
applications. For example, melamine resins, which can be used in FR 
barriers, are also used in many laminated counter tops.
    Based on available data, the Commission believes that there are 
available options for meeting the standard without posing an 
unacceptable health risk to consumers or significantly affecting the 
environment. Moreover, as described in section N of this preamble, even 
if a method used by some manufacturers to meet the standard were 
suspected of posing an unacceptable risk, there would be regulatory and 
other mechanisms that can be used to control that particular method. 
The staff is planning to conduct migration and exposure studies on 
various FR chemicals that could be used to meet the standard.
    The commenter suggested labeling of chemically treated components 
as a possible requirement of the standard, to inform consumers of the 
materials used. The Commission questions whether such information would 
be of practical value to consumers. Simply stating that a mattress 
component has been chemically treated does not indicate to the consumer 
whether the mattress poses any health risk or not. The proposed 
standard requires manufacturers to maintain records specifying details 
of all materials, including flame retardant treatments applied and 
inherently flame resistant materials, used in each mattress design 
(prototype). This will allow identification of relevant mattresses and 
mattress/sets if an unacceptable risk is identified.
    7. Comment. Another commenter recommended test provisions in the 
standard that address the long term durability of the flame retardant 
chemicals used in mattresses to ensure they continue to meet the fire 
performance requirements.
    Response. It is expected that most manufacturers will use some kind 
of flame resistant barrier material to protect the mattress components 
with the greatest combustible fuel load from exposure to an open flame. 
Flame resistant barriers for mattresses may take several forms, 
including ticking fabrics, woven and non-woven interlinings, and 
battings. It is likely that these barriers will be made with an 
inherently flame resistant fiber (e.g., para-aramid or fiberglass) or 
by treatment with flame retardant chemicals, many of which are 
incorporated within the fiber, foam, or

[[Page 2478]]

other material. At this point in the development of technologies that 
may be used to meet TB 603 or the proposed standard, the staff has seen 
no evidence that suggests that changes in these materials over time 
will occur or affect fire performance.
    8. Comment. One commenter expressed concerns about the potentially 
severe economic impact of a federal regulation, similar to TB 603, on 
small businesses.
    Response. The Commission acknowledges that the cost of testing, 
record keeping, and quality control/quality assurance programs could be 
disproportionately higher for small businesses. While these costs are 
estimated to be a little over one dollar per mattress per year for 
average-sized establishments, they could be substantially higher for 
some small mattress producers. The proposed standard, however, allows 
manufacturers to pool their prototype qualification and testing, and 
thus these costs can be mitigated. Moreover, if manufacturers produce 
mattress/set constructions for longer than a year or use a worst-case 
prototype to represent other mattress constructions, these costs will 
be lower. It is also expected that some barrier suppliers or 
independent laboratories would be willing to do the testing and quality 
control/assurance programs for small producers in exchange for a small 
charge. Therefore, the proposed standard is expected to minimize the 
impact on small businesses, while maintaining the benefits resulting 
from the standard.
    The Commission is requesting comments from small businesses on the 
expected economic impact of the requirements of the proposed standard 
and the proposed effective date of 12 months after publication of the 
final rule in the Federal Register.
    9. Comment. One commenter reported that some juvenile or crib 
mattresses, while meeting the 200 kW peak rate of heat release 
requirement, produce large amounts of flaming droplets that have the 
potential for spreading flames beyond the mattress. TB 603 does not 
address these flaming droplets.
    Response. The objective of the proposed standard is to reduce the 
size of mattress/bedding fires and, thereby reduce the likelihood of or 
delay the development of flashover conditions in the room. Based on 
research conducted by NIST, performance criteria were developed to 
limit the size of the mattress fire and reduce the likelihood of it 
involving other objects in the room. The Commission believes that, 
while the proposed standard may be less effective in isolated 
circumstances, the objective of the standard can be met with the 
performance criteria specified: maximum 200 kW peak heat release rate 
during the 30-minute test and maximum 15 MJ total heat release in the 
first 10 minutes of the test. Laboratory tests of currently marketed 
crib mattresses of which the Commission is aware show unacceptable 
performance in one or both of these fire performance measures. Like 
full-size mattresses, these crib mattresses would also need to be 
improved to meet the requirements of the proposed standard.
    10. Comment. One commenter suggested that a 60-minute test duration 
is needed in the standard to allow for fire and rescue workers to 
respond and help occupants escape.
    The commenter notes that the longer test time will allow emergency 
responders to assist vulnerable citizens to escape fires involving 
mattresses and bedding. They report that response times can vary widely 
among local circumstances, from approximately 16 minutes to an hour or 
more.
    Response. To estimate the proposed standard's potential 
effectiveness, the staff reviewed in-depth investigations that provided 
detailed information about fires that ignited mattresses and bedding, 
details of the occupants' situation, and occupants' actions during the 
fire. Most investigations also included documentation from the fire 
department that attended the fire. The in-depth investigations involved 
fires occurring during 1999-2004, and included a total of 195 deaths 
and 205 injuries. In some of these cases, even with traditional 
mattresses and bedding, other members of the household present at the 
time of the fire and emergency responders arriving within as little as 
5 minutes were able to rescue victims.
    With improved mattresses, those complying with the 30-minute test 
specified in the proposed standard, the fire growth is slowed 
considerably and flashover conditions are delayed, making successful 
rescue efforts of family members and emergency responders more likely. 
The Commission estimates that 310 to 330 deaths and 1,660 to 1,780 
injuries resulting from mattress and bedding fires could be prevented 
annually by the proposed standard. A maximum additional 80 deaths and 
280 injuries, considered addressable by the draft standard, might be 
further reduced with a 60-minute test. However, actual reductions would 
likely be much lower. This is because those considered likely to die or 
be injured in conditions associated with a proposed 30 minute test are 
those incapable of acting on their own and with no potential rescuer in 
the occupancy. Even with more time, in such circumstances, the fire 
continues to progress, and the chances of rescue are unpredictable.
    Based on the preliminary regulatory analysis, the expected benefits 
of the proposed standard, incorporating a 30-minute test, are greater 
than the costs. The regulatory analysis also considered alternatives to 
the proposed standard, including a 60-minute test; neither this nor the 
other alternatives was shown to increase expected net benefits.
    11. Comment. A few commenters expressed the need to maintain 
protection from the threat from cigarette ignitions while considering 
an open flame standard.
    Response. The standard that addresses cigarette ignition 
resistance, the Standard for the Flammability of Mattresses and 
Mattress Pads, codified as 16 CFR part 1632, remains in effect unless 
it is modified or revoked by the Commission in a separate rulemaking 
proceeding. If such a rulemaking occurred, the Commission would 
thoroughly evaluate the need for maintaining both an open flame 
standard and the standard for cigarette ignition resistance.

Bedclothes Comments

    Comment. Most of the commenters refer to the impact of burning 
bedclothes on mattress/bedding fires and express opinions on the 
potential scope of an open flame mattress standard. Some commenters 
urge the Commission to limit the scope of a standard to mattresses 
while opposing commenters recommend that either the scope be expanded 
to incorporate bedclothes or bedclothes should have ignition standards 
of their own.
    Commenters in support of regulating bedclothes believe that 
studying the impact of burning bedclothes is appropriate and would 
assist in the development of better performing, safer products. They 
note that bedclothes contribute to the intensity and spread of the 
original ignition source often involved in mattress fires. Therefore, 
burning bedclothes become a significant ignition source to the mattress 
and impact the burning characteristics of the mattress and foundation. 
They further note that bedclothes alone have been shown to generate a 
fire large enough to pose a hazard and can alone be the cause of 
ignition to nearby items. According to these commenters, improving the 
flammability of certain bedding items, such as filled items, is 
economically feasible. One commenter claims that mattress fires cannot 
be adequately addressed without also

[[Page 2479]]

considering the flammability of bedclothes.
    In support of limiting the scope to mattresses and not regulating 
bedclothes, some commenters identify bedding items as an uncontrolled 
variable. They claim that there is no way to predict the type of 
bedclothes that may be involved in an incident at any given time; the 
number and type of items used by consumers is indefinable and consumers 
select items based on season, fashion, and climate. In addition, 
according to these commenters, there is no objective method to 
determine if consumers would use regulated bedclothes; there is little 
data to suggest that regulating some selected items will have an impact 
on the hazard; and flammability performance should not be based on what 
consumers may or may not use as bedclothes. These commenters also state 
that most U.S. textile manufacturers already voluntarily test for small 
open flame ignition of bedclothes using ASTM voluntary test methods. 
They assert that the additional burden and expense of any regulation on 
bedclothes would be substantial and could not be justified.
    Response. The Commission notes that bedclothes substantially 
contribute to the complexity and magnitude of the mattress fire hazard. 
In laboratory tests peak heat release rates as high as 800 kW were 
observed from some larger bedclothes items. This presents a clear risk 
of flashover; and this heat release rate is much higher than that 
allowed for a mattress/set in the proposed standard. The extent to 
which bedclothes can be modified in a manner that is technologically 
practicable and economically feasible is unclear at this time. However, 
reducing the contribution of certain high fuel load bedding items to a 
mattress/bedding fire is desirable. The Commission is issuing an ANPR 
for a bedclothes flammability standard. The Commission believes that 
such a standard could increase the likelihood that mattress/bedding 
fire losses are effectively reduced.

K. Preliminary Regulatory Analysis

    The Commission has preliminarily determined to issue a rule 
establishing a flammability standard addressing the open flame ignition 
of mattresses. Section 4(i) of the FFA requires that the Commission 
prepare a preliminary regulatory analysis for this action and that it 
be published with the proposed rule. 15 U.S.C. 1193(i). The following 
discussion, extracted from the staff's memorandum titled ``Preliminary 
Regulatory Analysis of a Draft Proposed Standard to Address Open-Flame 
Ignitions of Mattresses,'' addresses this requirement. [8]

1. Introduction

    There were an estimated 18,900 fires where the first item ignited 
was mattress/bedding in 1998 (the last year for which detailed data 
comparable to previous years are available). These fires caused an 
estimated 2,260 civilian injuries, 410 deaths, and $255.4 million in 
property losses. As discussed elsewhere in this document, NIST has 
conducted extensive research and developed a test methodology to test 
open flame ignition of mattresses.
    California Technical Bulletin (TB) 603, which is based on the use 
of NIST test burners designed to mimic the local thermal insult (heat 
flux levels and duration) imposed by burning bedclothes, is scheduled 
to become effective in California January 1, 2005. TB 603 requires all 
mattress/foundation sets, mattresses intended to be used without a 
foundation, and futons to meet the following pass/fail criteria: (1) 
The peak heat release rate (``PHRR'') does not exceed 200 kW during the 
30 minute test, and (2) the total heat release does not exceed 25 mega 
joules (MJ) in the first 10 minutes of the test.
    Large mattress manufacturers may eventually produce TB 603-
compliant mattresses for sale nationwide, because of legal liability 
and production logistics. In the short-run, however, some manufacturers 
may limit their sale of TB 603-complying mattresses to California. 
Sealy's president and CEO said that ``[they] plan to be ready by the 
end of this year [2004] if a national retailer wants the same product'' 
with fire resistant technology, but will not convert all production by 
January 2005 (Furniture Today, March, 10, 2004). Smaller producers are 
more likely to wait until they have a better idea of enforcement 
efforts in California, or until a federal standard is adopted. The 
mattress industry, represented by ISPA, supports the development of a 
mandatory federal standard (Furniture Today, May, 10, 2004). A Federal 
standard would eliminate the uncertainty that may result from having 
different flammability standards for different states.

2. The Proposed Standard: Scope and Testing Provisions

    The proposed standard will apply to all mattresses, where the term 
mattress means a ticking (i.e., an outer layer of fabric) filled with a 
resilient material used alone or in combination with other products 
intended or promoted for sleeping upon. This definition is discussed 
further in section G.2. above.
    A typical innerspring mattress construction might include ticking; 
binding tape fabric; quilt cushioning with one or more separate layers; 
quilt backing fabric; thread; cushioning with one or more separate 
layers; flanging; spring insulator pad; spring unit; and side (border) 
panels. Options for meeting the standard include the use of one or a 
combination of the following: fire resistant ticking; chemically 
treated or otherwise fire resistant filling products; or a fire 
blocking barrier (either a sheet style barrier, sometimes called a 
fabric barrier, or a high-loft barrier, sometimes called a fiber 
barrier). The fire blocking barrier is placed either directly between 
the exterior cover fabric of the product and the first layer of 
cushioning materials, or beneath one or more ``sacrificial'' layers 
that can burn without reaching the proposed heat release constraints.
    There are already over twenty different vendors of fire resistant 
materials associated with the production of mattresses, including 
barriers, ticking, foam, tape, and thread. These materials include 
chemically treated cotton, rayon, and/or polyester, melamine, 
modacrylic, fiberglass, aramid (Kevlar''), or some combination of them. 
The cost of using sheet barriers is higher than using high-loft 
barriers, since sheet barriers are thin and therefore could not be 
substituted for an existing foam or cushioning layer. There is also 
concern that some sheet barriers, unlike high-loft barriers, may reduce 
the comfort of the sleeping surface.
    To qualify a prototype, three mattresses/sets must be tested and 
must pass the test requirements. To obtain a passing result, each 
mattress/set must pass a 30 minute test, where the PHRR does not exceed 
200 kW and the total heat release does not exceed 15 MJ in the first 10 
minutes of the test. If any of the sets fail, the problem must be 
corrected, the prototype must be retested and pass the test (in 
triplicate). Manufacturers may sell any mattress/set based on a 
qualified prototype. Manufacturers may also sell a mattress/set based 
on a prototype that has not been tested if that prototype differs from 
a qualified prototype only with respect to (1) mattress/foundation 
size; (2) ticking, unless the ticking of the qualified prototype has 
characteristics designed to improve performance on the burn test; and/
or (3) any component, material, or method of construction that the 
manufacturer can demonstrate, on an objectively reasonable basis, will 
not cause the prototype to exceed the test criteria specified above.
    If one or more establishments (plants within the same firm) or 
independent

[[Page 2480]]

firms choose to ``pool'' prototypes, then each pooling plant or firm is 
required to test one mattress/set for confirmation testing. If that set 
fails, then the plant or firm will need to test another mattress/set 
after correcting its production to make sure that it is identical to 
the original prototype.
    A pooling firm may sell other mattresses that have not been tested 
by the pooling firm if they differ from the pooled prototype only with 
respect to (1) mattress/set size; (2) ticking, unless the ticking of 
the qualified prototype has characteristics designed to improve 
performance on the burn test; and/or (3) any component, material, or 
method of construction that the manufacturer can demonstrate, on an 
objectively reasonable basis, will not cause the prototype to exceed 
the test criteria specified above.

3. Products and Industries Potentially Affected

    According to ISPA, the mattress producers' trade organization, the 
top four producers of mattresses account for almost sixty percent of 
total U.S. production. In total, there are 639 establishments (as of 
2001) that produce mattresses in the U.S., using the U.S. Department of 
Commerce NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) Code 
33791 for mattresses. The top four producers account for about half of 
the number of all these establishments. The number of establishments 
has been declining over time due to mergers and buy-outs. Total 
employment in the industry, using the NAICS Code 33791, was 25,500 
workers in 2001.
    The mattress manufacturing industry has three key supplying 
industries: spring and wire product manufacturing, broad-woven fabric 
mills, and foam products manufacturing. Depending on the type of fire 
resistant barrier chosen by different manufacturers, the demand for 
foam padding for mattresses might decline if it were replaced by the 
high-loft barrier in the construction of the mattress and foundation. 
This would be offset by an increase in the demand for the high-loft 
barrier. If sheet barriers were chosen by some mattress producers, then 
sales of, and employment by, the sheet barrier suppliers would 
increase. Since the sheet barriers would not replace other inputs, 
there would most likely be no offsetting effect on other industries. 
Fiberglass, melamine, and aramid producers may also be affected to the 
extent that they are used to produce fire resistant materials used in 
mattress production.
    Manufacturers of bedclothes may also be affected by the proposed 
standard. Sales of bedclothes may increase or decrease based on whether 
consumers view bedclothes as complements or substitutes for a new 
mattress/set (complements are goods generally consumed together, 
substitutes generally substitute for each other). For example, if 
people tend to buy all parts of a new bed (mattress, foundation, and 
bedclothes consisting of a comforter, pillows, and sheets) at the same 
time, then an increase in the quantity of mattresses sold would cause 
an increase in sales of bedclothes. If, alternatively, people tend to 
have a fixed budget from which to buy all mattresses and bedding items, 
then an increase in the quantity of mattresses sold would lead to a 
decrease in sales of bedclothes. Also, if the decision to buy a new 
mattress (or mattress/set) involves buying a mattress that is much 
thicker than the one currently in use, then consumers will most likely 
buy new sheets (and possibly matching pillowcases and other bedclothes 
items) to fit the new thicker mattress.
    If the cost increase is relatively small or there is no resulting 
increase in the price of a mattress/set, then the demand for bedclothes 
will only be affected if consumers place a higher value on the safer 
mattress and replace their current mattress sooner than they would have 
with no standard in place. An increased demand for the safer (and 
thicker, if the current mattress is relatively old) mattress will 
likely result in an increased demand for sheets that fit the newer 
mattresses. This effect, however, is not directly resulting from the 
adoption of the proposed standard since the thickness of the mattress 
need not be increased by the presence of either type of barrier. It is 
the result of the increased utility some consumers may derive from the 
safer mattress and the consequent increase in demand for bedclothes. 
The increased demand for safer mattresses would most probably lead to 
an increase in sales and employment in the spring and wire products, 
broad-woven fabric, and foam products industries, as well as in the 
mattress and bedclothes industries.
    Other producers that could potentially be affected, if the price 
change associated with producing compliant mattresses is significant, 
are those of other substitute products, like airbeds, waterbeds, * * * 
etc. that contain no upholstered material and would, therefore, not be 
covered by the proposed standard. Their sales may increase as a 
proportion of total bedding products.

4. Characteristics of Mattresses Used in U.S. Households

    The total number of U.S. conventional mattress shipments was 21.5 
million in 2002 and is estimated to be 22.1 in 2003 and 22.8 in 2004. 
Mattress shipments have grown at an average rate of three percent over 
the period 1981 to 2004. Unconventional mattresses (including futons; 
crib mattresses; juvenile mattresses; sleep sofa inserts; and hybrid 
water mattresses) are estimated to be about ten percent of the total 
market. This yields an estimated total number of mattresses produced 
domestically of 25.3 million in 2004. The value of mattress and 
foundation shipments in 2002, according to ISPA, was $3.26 and $1.51 
billion respectively.
    The CPSC Product Population Model (PPM) estimate of the number of 
mattresses in use in different years is based on available annual sales 
data and an estimate of the average product life of a mattress. 
Industry representatives assert that the average consumer replaces a 
mattress/set after ten years. A 1996 CPSC market study estimated the 
average expected life of a mattress to be 14 years. The PPM estimates 
the number of (conventional and non-conventional) mattresses in use in 
2004 to be 233 million mattresses, using a 10-year average product 
life, and 302.6 million mattresses, using a 14-year average product 
life. These two numbers are later used to estimate the pre-standard 
baseline risk and the expected benefits of the proposed standard.
    This analysis focuses principally on queen-size mattresses because 
they are the most commonly used. In 2002 queen-size mattresses were 
used by 34 percent of U.S. consumers. Following the queen-size are the 
sizes: Twin and Twin XL (31.2 percent), Full and Full XL (21 percent), 
King and California King (11 percent), and all other (2.6 percent). 
ISPA data reflect that the average size of a mattress is increasing. 
The average manufacturing price in 2002 was $152 for a mattress of 
average size and $86 for a foundation of average size. Hence the 
average manufacturing price of a mattress/set was about $238 in 2002.
    There are no readily available data on average retail prices for 
mattress/foundation sets by size. ISPA, however, reports that mattress/
foundation sets selling for under $500 represent 40.7 percent of the 
market. Mattress/foundation sets selling for between $500 and $1000 
represent 39.2 percent of the market.

[[Page 2481]]

5. Trends in Mattress/Bedding Residential Fires, Deaths, Injuries, and 
Property Losses

    Open-Flame Ignition. The staff estimates average annual mattress/
bedding fires from open-flame ignitions (including candles, matches and 
lighters) to have been 8,367 and 6,367 over the 1993-95 and 1996-98 
periods respectively. This represents a reduction of 23.9 percent. The 
resulting average mattress/bedding deaths, injuries, and property 
losses from open-flame ignitions have decreased by 28.2 percent, 22.1 
percent, and 5.6 percent respectively, over the 1993 to 1998 period. 
When adjusted for inflation, the decrease in the value of property 
losses becomes 37.7 percent.
    Smoking Material Ignition. The staff estimates average annual 
mattress/bedding fires from smoking material ignition (including 
cigarettes, cigars, and pipes) to have been 7,733 and 6,067 over the 
1993-95 and 1996-98 periods respectively. This represents a reduction 
of 21.6 percent over the 1993 to 1998 period. Average annual deaths, 
injuries, and property losses due to mattress/bedding smoking material 
ignitions have decreased by 4.7 percent, 19.7 percent, and 9.7 percent, 
respectively, over the same period. When adjusted for inflation, the 
decrease in the value of property losses becomes 40.4 percent.
    Other Ignition Sources. The staff estimates average annual 
mattress/bedding fires from other ignition sources (including sparks, 
embers, or flames escaping from fueled equipment, arcs or sparks from 
electric equipment, small torches, hot embers, and fireworks, heat 
escaping from fueled equipment, molten material, short circuit arc, and 
heat overloaded equipment) to have been 8,633 and 7,767 over the 1993-
95 and 1996-98 periods respectively. This represents a reduction of 10 
percent over the 1993 to 1998 period. Average annual injuries and 
inflation-adjusted property losses have decreased by 13.8 percent and 
38.7 percent respectively. Average annual deaths increased by 51.7 
percent (from 97 to 147). This increase offsets the decrease in deaths 
resulting from open-flame and smoking material ignition fires. The 
annual average number of deaths from all ignition sources remained 
unchanged over the period, equal to 510.

6. Expected Benefits of the Proposed Standard

    The expected benefits of the proposed standard are estimated as 
reductions in the baseline risk of death and injury from all mattress 
fires, based on a CPSC staff study of fire investigations from 1999-
2004. Risk reductions are then calculated on a per-mattress-in-use 
basis based on estimates of the number of mattresses in use. The 
monetary value of expected benefits per mattress is derived using 
current (i.e., 2004) estimates for the value of a statistical life and 
the average cost of a mattress fire injury. To derive the monetary 
value of expected benefits over the life of a mattress, the expected 
annual benefits are discounted (using a three percent discount rate), 
and then summed over the expected life of the mattress. The analysis 
considers mattress lives of 10 and 14 years.
    The potential benefits of the proposed standard consist of the 
reduction in deaths, injuries, and property damage that would result. 
Since the objective of the proposed standard is to reduce the 
likelihood of flashover or increase the time before flashover occurs, 
and not to reduce fires, changes in property losses associated with the 
proposed standard are hard to quantify. Property losses are expected to 
decline but the extent of the decline cannot be quantified. 
Consequently, for purposes of this analysis, no reduction in property 
losses is assumed. That is, all expected benefits from the proposed 
standard are in the form of prevented deaths and injuries. This 
underestimates net benefits, since there will likely be some benefits 
from reduced property losses.
    The proposed standard is expected to reduce the likelihood of 
flashover resulting from fires started by smoking materials or other 
ignition sources, as well as those started by open-flame ignition. 
Fires, injuries, and property losses resulting from smoking material 
ignition and other ignitions, and deaths from smoking material ignition 
are lower for the 1996-98 period than the 1993-95 period. (Deaths from 
other ignition sources are more than 50 percent higher). Any additional 
reduction in these figures due to the proposed open-flame ignition 
standard will translate into societal benefits, as will be discussed in 
the benefit-cost analysis (Section 8).
    Estimates of the effectiveness of the proposed standard are based 
on a CPSC staff evaluation of in-depth investigation reports of fires 
(including details of the occupants' situations and actions during the 
fire) occurring in 1999-2004 in which a mattress or bedding was the 
first item to ignite, the fire was of the type considered addressable 
by the proposed standard, and a civilian death or injury resulted. Most 
of the investigations also included documentation from the fire 
department that attended the fire. Some incident reports were initiated 
from death certificates with follow-up documentation from the fire 
department. This resulted in a total of 195 deaths and 205 injuries in 
the investigations to be evaluated. The distribution of mattress 
ignition sources was not representative of all fires involving 
mattresses and thus the data were weighted to match the NFIRS-based 
national fire data distributions.
    Evaluations of the fire incidents by CPSC staff reviewers used the 
results of NIST testing (Ohlemiller, 2004; Ohlemiller and Gann, 2003; 
Ohlemiller and Gann, 2002) conducted to assess the hazard produced from 
burning mattresses and bedclothes. Specifically, the evaluations were 
based on the expectation that occupants in bed when the fire ignited 
but able to escape the burning bedclothes in the first three to five 
minutes faced a minimal hazard. Occupants in direct contact with 
burning bedclothes for a longer period (5 to 10 minutes) would be 
subject to potentially hazardous levels of heat release. If the burning 
bedclothes did not ignite other non-bedding items or produce flashover 
at this time, heat release would subside temporarily and then begin to 
increase as the involvement of the mattress increased.
    These conditions would allow occupants 10 to 15 minutes to escape 
the room of origin before the situation in the room would become 
untenable. Since the proposed standard is expected to slow the rate of 
fire spread and hence increase escape time, assuming that bedclothes do 
not contribute enough heat to pose a hazardous condition, it was 
assumed that no deaths would occur among people who were outside the 
room of origin at the time of ignition, unless they entered the room 
later or were incapable of exiting on their own. The analysis focused 
on reduction of deaths and injuries because the proposed standard is 
designed to limit fire intensity and spread rather than prevent 
ignition.
    Each investigation was evaluated by CPSC staff reviewers to 
identify the features related to the occurrence of a death or injury 
once the fire was ignited. These included casualty age, casualty 
location when the fire started (at the point of ignition, in the room 
of origin but not at the point of ignition, or outside the room of 
origin), whether the casualty was asleep, or suffered from additional 
conditions likely to increase the time needed to escape, whether the 
casualty engaged in fighting the fire, and whether a rescuer was 
present. All of these conditions were used to determine a range for the 
likelihood that each individual death or injury would have

[[Page 2482]]

been prevented had the draft proposed standard been in effect. 
Percentage reductions of deaths (injuries) within subcategories of heat 
source and age group were applied to equivalent subcategories of the 
national estimates based on the NFIRS and NFPA data for 1995-1999. The 
estimated reductions per category were summed and the overall 
percentage reductions were calculated as the percent of addressable 
deaths (or injuries) that would have been prevented if the likelihood 
of flashover were reduced in the first 30 minutes and victims had 10 to 
15 minutes of escape time.
    The staff indicates that the proposed standard is expected to 
reduce all addressable deaths from mattress/bedding fires by 80 to 86 
percent and reduce all addressable injuries from mattress/bedding fires 
by 86 to 92 percent. The results vary only slightly by source of 
ignition. These estimated effectiveness percentages result in the 
prevention of an estimated 310 to 330 deaths and 1660 to 1780 injuries 
annually, for the 1998-2002 period.
    The staff's analysis presents the estimated annual deaths and 
injuries that are expected to be prevented by the proposed standard, 
based on average figures for 1998-2002. For purposes of this analysis, 
it is assumed that the annual deaths and injuries prevented by the 
proposed standard equal the average annual deaths and injuries 
prevented for the 1998-2002 period. The analysis is conducted as if the 
standard went into effect in 2004. All dollar estimates are based on 
constant 2004 dollars. A discount rate of 3 percent and average 
expected lives of a mattress of 10 and 14 years are also assumed.
    The estimated ranges of deaths and injuries prevented are 
calculated by applying the range of percent reductions to average 
addressable deaths and injuries for the period 1998-2002. Staff's 
analysis also presents the risk reduction in deaths and injuries that 
would result from the proposed standard (per million mattresses). Based 
on the estimated number of mattresses in use (described in Section 4) 
and an average expected life of 10 years, the annual reduction in the 
risk of death equals 1.33 deaths per million mattresses (310 deaths 
divided by the estimated 233 million mattresses in use in 2004) to 1.42 
per million mattresses (330 deaths / 233 million mattresses). The 
estimated reduction in the risk of injury, similarly calculated, equals 
7.12 to 7.64 injuries per million mattresses for an estimated 10-year 
life of a mattress. The estimated risk reductions for an estimated 14-
year life of a mattress are 1.02 to 1.09 deaths and 5.49 to 5.88 
injuries per million mattresses.
    Annual risk reductions resulting from the proposed standard are 
used to derive the monetary benefits from reduced deaths and injuries. 
The estimated reduction in the risk of death is multiplied by the value 
of a statistical life (and divided by a million) to derive a first-year 
monetary estimate for the range of benefits from lives saved per 
mattress. Based on the existing literature, a value of a statistical 
life of five million dollars is assumed (Viscusi, 1993). The estimated 
reduction in the risk of injury is similarly used to derive the range 
of first-year monetary benefits from injuries prevented. The benefits 
from preventing an injury (the cost of an injury) in 2004 are estimated 
to average about $179,300, based on Miller et. al. (1993). The first-
year benefits associated with preventing deaths and injuries equal 
$7.93 to $8.45 for an estimated mattress life of 10 years and $6.11 to 
$6.51 for an estimated mattress life of 14 years.
    Lifetime benefits are derived by projecting annual benefits for the 
life of the mattress and summing the discounted (at a rate of 3 
percent) stream of annual benefits (measured in constant dollars). The 
number of mattresses in use is projected to grow at a rate of zero to 
three percent, based on the average growth rate for the 1981-2002 
period. Since the number of deaths and injuries are implicitly assumed 
to remain constant over time, a positive growth rate of mattresses in 
use implies a declining risk over time. The lower end of the ranges for 
estimated (10 and 14 years) lifetime benefits correspond to a 3 percent 
projected growth rate and the lower end of the effectiveness ranges. 
The upper end of the ranges for estimated (10 and 14 years) lifetime 
benefits correspond to a zero percent projected growth rate and the 
upper end of the effectiveness ranges. For an expected mattress life of 
10 years, the resulting expected lifetime benefits of saved lives 
associated with the proposed standard equal $51.70 to $62.22 per 
mattress. The corresponding benefits of prevented injuries equal $9.93 
to $12.03. Hence, for an expected mattress life of 10 years, the 
expected total lifetime benefits of a compliant mattress equal $61.66 
to $74.25. For an expected mattress life of 14 years, total benefits 
equal $59.88 to $75.71 per mattress. The sensitivity analysis section 
below examines how the results might change when a discount rate of 
seven percent is used.

7. Expected Costs of the Proposed Standard

    This section presents the expected resource costs associated with 
the proposed standard. Resource costs are costs that reflect the use of 
a resource that would have been available for other uses had it not 
been used in conjunction with the production of mattresses compliant 
with the proposed standard. These costs include material and labor 
costs; testing costs; costs to wholesalers, distributors, and 
retailers; costs of producers' information collection and record 
keeping; costs of quality control/quality assurance programs; and 
compliance and enforcement costs. The effect on retail prices will be 
discussed in Section 8.
    Material and Labor Costs. To comply with the proposed standard, the 
construction of most mattress/sets will include a barrier technology 
with improved fire performance. This barrier may be thick (high-loft) 
or thin (sheet). High-loft barriers are generally used to replace some 
of the existing non-woven fiber, foam, and/or batting material, leading 
to a smaller increase in costs than sheet barriers, which constitute an 
addition to production materials (and costs).
    According to several barrier producers and mattress manufacturers, 
the price of a high-loft barrier that would make a mattress comply with 
the proposed standard, defined to have a width of 88 to 92 inches, is 
$3.00 to $5.00 per linear yard. The high-loft barrier replaces the 
currently-used polyester batting, which costs an average of $0.50 to 
$1.70 per linear yard. Hence, the net increase in the cost attributed 
to the use of the high-loft barrier is $1.30 to $4.50 per linear yard, 
which translates to a net increase in barrier-related manufacturing 
costs of $7.80 to $27.00 for a queen-size mattress/set.\4\ The queen-
size is used for all the cost estimates, because it is the mode size, 
used by 34 percent of consumers in 2002.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \4\ This calculation is based on the assumption that a queen-
size mattress/set requires six linear yards of the barrier mateiral 
to be used in the two (top and bottom) panels of the mattress and 
the side panels of both the mattress and foundation. Some producers 
are able to use less than six linear yards, which reduces their cost 
per queen mattress/set.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    According to several barrier producers and mattress manufacturers, 
the price of a sheet barrier that would make a mattress comply with the 
proposed standard is $4.00 to $6.00 per linear yard. Because of its 
different texture, the sheet barrier would generally not replace any of 
the materials being used in the construction of the mattress/set.\5\

[[Page 2483]]

This translates to $24.00 to $36.00 for a queen-size mattress/set. The 
large difference in the net cost of the two barrier types suggests that 
if a barrier's fire performance is not a function of its type, most 
manufacturers will use high-loft barriers, the less costly alternative. 
A large mattress manufacturer also indicated that mattresses produced 
with sheet barriers in the top panel of the mattress (as opposed to the 
side panels) may be less comfortable.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \5\ The only exception to this might involve using a sheet 
barrier in the side panel of the mattress and foundation. Because 
the existence of cushioning along the side of the mattress and 
foundation would probably not be noticed or missed by consumers, 
substitution of the sheet barrier for the material currently being 
used in the side panel may be implemented to reduce the cost of 
using the sheet barrier. The side panel is small, relative to the 
size of the entire surface area of a mattress/set, and its possibly 
different construction is therefore not included in the cost 
calculation. This leads to a slight over-estimation of the cost of 
the sheet barrier and consequently the relative cost of using a 
sheet instead of a high-loft barrier.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In addition to the increase in material costs due to the use of a 
barrier, costs will increase due to the use of fire-resistant (FR) 
thread for tape stitching. According to several thread producers, the 
cost of FR thread is $0.41 to $0.60 per queen-size mattress/set. Given 
that the cost of nylon (non-FR) thread is about $0.10 per queen-size 
mattress/set, the net increase in costs per queen-size mattress/set due 
to the use of FR thread is $0.31 to $0.50.
    Costs may also increase due to slightly reduced labor productivity. 
Based on industry estimates of an average of two labor hours for the 
production of a queen-size mattress/set, and a 10 percent reduction in 
labor productivity and an industry average hourly wage rate of $11.50, 
the cost increase due to reduced labor productivity is about $2.30.
    The increase in the materials and labor costs of a mattress, is 
thus equal to $10.41 ($7.80 barrier cost + $0.31 thread cost + $2.30 
labor cost) to $29.80 ($27 barrier cost + $0.50 thread cost + $2.30 
labor cost) for a high-loft barrier and $26.61 ($24.00 barrier cost + 
$0.31 thread cost + $2.30 labor cost) to $38.80 ($36 barrier cost + 
$0.50 thread cost + $2.30 additional labor cost) for a sheet 
barrier.\6\ Various types of high-loft and sheet barriers are widely 
available for sale and therefore it is expected that those whose prices 
are at the upper end of the range will either not be produced (because 
mattress manufacturers will not buy them) or their prices will drop (so 
that they can compete with other barriers available for sale). Hence 
the total materials and labor costs will most likely be closer to the 
lower end of the estimated range.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \6\ Some producers are also using an FR mattress edge binding 
tape, which costs an average of $2.52 per mattress, while a non-FR 
tape costs an average of $1.68. This makes the net increase in 
costs, due to using FR edge binding tape, equal to $0.84. This cost 
is not added to the total production costs, because it is not 
required for the mattress to pass the burn test.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Costs of Prototype and Confirmation Testing. Each mattress/set 
prototype is required to be tested in triplicate for prototype 
qualification. According to industry representatives, the cost of 
testing per twin-size mattress/set may be about $500: the sum of the 
average cost of the materials and shipping ($100) and the cost of the 
use of the lab ($400). Hence, the cost of testing three mattresses/sets 
for prototype qualification equals $1500. Additionally, if some 
mattress/set prototypes do not pass the first time, then the cost will 
be higher, because additional tests will be done after action is taken 
to improve the resistance of the prototype. If 10 percent of mattresses 
are retested, then the average cost of testing a prototype would be 10 
percent higher, or $1650. This cost is assumed to be incurred no more 
than once per establishment for each prototype. It is expected that a 
qualified prototype will be used to represent a mattress construction 
(e.g., single-sided pillow top) with all other prototypes using the 
same construction (with different size and different ticking materials) 
being based on the qualified prototype. If companies pool their 
prototype definitions across different establishments or different 
companies, testing costs would be smaller as all but one of the firms/
establishments producing to the specification of a pooled prototype 
will burn one mattress (for the confirmation test) instead of three 
(for the prototype test). The probability of a mattress failing a 
confirmation test is small. Therefore, it is expected that the average 
cost of testing per mattress will be lower for firms and/or 
establishments that pool their results than for those that do not.
    If manufacturers test every mattress construction (e.g., single-
sided pillow top, double-sided pillow-top, tight-top, euro-top, * * * 
etc.), which is estimated, based on conversations with manufacturers, 
to average about twenty per manufacturer, for every establishment in a 
given year, then their average testing cost per mattress would 
approximately equal 92.5 cents ($1650 x 20 constructions x 639 
establishments/22.8 million conventional mattresses) per mattress for 
the first year of production. If manufacturers use a qualified 
prototype of the least fire-resistant mattress/set construction 
(``worst case'') to represent other mattress/set constructions, then 
the average cost of testing per mattress for the first year of 
production will be reduced. Pooling testing results across 
establishments and/or firms will further reduce the average cost of 
testing per mattress. On an annual basis testing costs will be further 
reduced because prototypes need only be tested in the year they are 
first developed.
    Cost of Information Collection and Record Keeping. In addition to 
prototype testing, the proposed standard will require detailed 
documentation of all tests performed and their results including video 
or pictures; prototype or production identification number; date and 
time of test; and name and location of testing facility; test room 
conditions; and test data for as long as the prototype is in production 
and for three years after its production ceases. Manufacturers are also 
required to keep records of a unique identification number for the 
qualified prototype and a list of the unique identification numbers of 
each prototype based on the qualified prototype and a description of 
the materials substituted and/or the size change. Moreover, they are 
required to document the name and supplier of each material used in 
construction of a prototype and keep physical samples of the material. 
Additionally, they are required to identify the details of the 
application of any fire retardant treatments and/or inherently fire 
resistant fibers employed relative to mattress components. This 
documentation is in addition to documentation already conducted by 
mattress manufacturers in their efforts to meet the cigarette standard. 
Detailed testing documentation will be done by the test lab and is 
included in the estimated cost of testing. Based on CPSC Office of 
Compliance staff estimates, all requirements of the proposed standard 
are expected to cost an establishment about 110 minutes, or 1.3 hours, 
per qualified prototype. Assuming that every establishment will produce 
20 different qualified prototypes, the increase in record keeping costs 
is about $935 (110 minutes x 20 qualified prototypes x $25.50 in 
average civilian workers' compensation per hour) per establishment per 
year. (Note that pooling among establishments or using a qualified 
prototype for longer than one year will reduce this estimate.) This 
translates to an average cost of 2.6 cents per mattress for an average 
establishment, with average output of 35,681 conventional mattresses.
    Cost of Quality Control/Quality Assurance Programs. To ensure that 
all mattresses are produced to the prototype specification across all 
factories and over the years for which a production line exists, 
mattress

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manufacturers will need a thorough well-documented quality control/
assurance program. The top 12 mattress producers (with a market share 
of almost 80 percent) have existing quality control programs which 
could be modified to fit the new standard with minimal additional 
costs. Smaller producers, whose quality control programs are less 
detailed or non-existent, will incur some incremental costs as a result 
of the proposed standard. These incremental costs will be small for 
each manufacturer and less when measured per mattress. (See the section 
on impact of the proposed standard on small businesses for a 
description of their cost of quality control and quality assurance 
programs.)
    Additionally, although the proposed standard does not require 
production testing, it encourages random production testing to assure 
manufacturers that their mattresses continue to meet the requirements 
of the rule, as a possible component of the quality control/quality 
assurance program. Assuming that an average of 3 mattress/foundation 
constructions will be tested per establishment per year yields an 
estimated cost of production testing of about $1500. Based on this 
assumption, the estimated cost of testing mattress/foundation sets for 
quality assurance purposes, therefore, equals 4.2 cents per mattress 
($1500/35,681) for an average establishment.
    The labor needed to meet the quality assurance measures required by 
the standard is estimated by CPSC Office of Compliance staff to be 224 
minutes per establishment per prototype per year. Assuming that every 
establishment will produce 20 qualified prototypes, the increase in 
labor costs associated with quality assurance requirements of the 
proposed standard is about $1904 (224 minutes x 20 qualified prototypes 
x $25.50 average civilian workers' compensation per hour) per 
establishment per year. (Note that pooling among establishments or 
using a qualified prototype for longer than one year will reduce this 
estimate.) This yields an average cost of 5.3 cents per mattress for an 
average establishment, with average output of 35,681 mattresses. Hence 
total costs of quality assurance/quality control programs may average 
about 9.5 cents (4.2 + 5.3) per conventional mattress per year.
    Costs to Wholesalers, Distributors, and Retailers. An added cost of 
the proposed standard is the increase in costs to wholesalers, 
distributors, and retailers in the form of additional storage, 
transportation, and inventory financing costs. Since a mattress 
complying with the proposed standard will not be bigger than a similar 
mattress produced before the standard becomes effective, storage and 
transportation costs are not expected to increase. Inventory financing 
costs will increase by the average cost of borrowing money, applied to 
the wholesale price of a mattress over the average inventory holding 
time period. Since most mattress producers use just-in-time production 
and have small inventories, this additional cost will probably not 
exceed ten percent of the increase in production cost (which is the sum 
of material, labor, testing, record keeping, and quality assurance 
costs). A ten percent mark-up is, therefore, being used to measure the 
cost to wholesalers, distributors, and retailers. This yields a 
resource cost to wholesalers, distributors, and retailers equal to 
$1.15 to $3.98 per mattress/set. Retail prices may increase by more 
than the ten percent mark-up. Section 8 discusses the impact of the 
proposed standard on retail prices of mattresses.
    Costs of Compliance and Enforcement. Compliance and enforcement 
costs refer to the costs incurred by CPSC to ensure that manufacturers 
are complying with the proposed standard. Based on past experience with 
the existing mattress standard, the estimated CPSC inspection time 
spent per location (establishment) equals 33 hours for inspection and 6 
hours for sample collection. This yields a cost per inspection of about 
$1,664.52 (39 hours x $42.68, the average wage rate for CPSC 
inspectors). Additionally, compliance officers spend an average of 20 
hours per case, making their cost equal to $1,032.80 (20 hours x 
$51.64, the average hourly wage rate for compliance officers). This 
yields an average compliance and enforcement total labor cost of 
$2,697.32 per inspected establishment per year.
    It should be noted that the expected cost per establishment, if 
less than one hundred percent of establishments are inspected every 
year, equals the cost per inspected establishment times the probability 
that a given establishment will be inspected. Though the probability 
that a given establishment will be inspected in a given year is not 
known, assuming that a third of all establishments will be inspected 
(i.e., about 213 establishments) yields a compliance and enforcement 
total expected labor cost of $899.11 ($2,697.32 x (\1/3\)) per 
establishment per year.
    In addition to labor costs, CPSC will incur testing costs. It 
should be noted that the decision to collect samples after an 
inspection visit is made at the discretion of the investigator and, 
therefore an accurate assumption about the number of samples collected 
and sent for a burn test cannot be made. If, based on inspection, 
samples from 10 percent of all inspected establishments were to be 
collected and sent to a lab for a burn test, and if samples 
representing 5 qualified prototypes are taken from each of these 
establishments, then the total cost of CPSC testing will be $157,500 (5 
qualified prototypes x $1,500 (the cost of testing up to 3 mattresses 
for each qualified prototype) x 21 (10 percent of 213 inspected 
establishments)). These assumptions about frequency of testing yield an 
expected cost of testing per establishment of $246.48 ($157,500/639).
    Therefore the expected total CPSC wage and testing costs associated 
with the proposed standard per establishment per year equal $1,145.59 
($899.11 + $246.48). With an average production of 35,681 mattresses 
per establishment (22.8 million mattresses divided by 639 
establishments), the average CPSC wage and testing costs equal 3.2 
cents per mattress ($1,145.59/35,681). These costs are expected to 
decrease over time as manufacturers learn the requirements of the 
proposed standard.
    Total Resource Costs. Therefore total resource costs (including 
material costs, labor costs, costs of prototype and confirmation 
testing, paperwork collection and record keeping costs, costs of 
quality control/quality assurance programs, production testing costs, 
costs to wholesalers, distributors, and retailers, and costs of 
compliance and enforcement) are estimated to range from $12.63 to 
$43.86 per mattress. This range includes both the high-loft and sheet 
barriers. The section on the impact of the proposed standard on small 
businesses and other small entities discusses how costs of testing and 
quality control/quality assurance programs may differ for small 
businesses and strategies that small manufacturers might adopt to 
reduce these costs.
    Projected Future Costs. It is possible that costs associated with 
the standard will decline over time. A supplier of fire resistant 
barriers predicts that the price of the barriers will decline by 40 
percent in the next two years, due to decreased uncertainty and 
increased competition. (They have already dropped significantly since 
TB603 was proposed.) The increase in labor costs due to decreased 
productivity is expected to be temporary and be reduced when workers 
get more training and/or the older machines get replaced

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with newer machines that are more capable of handling the FR thread and 
material used in fire resistant barriers. Moreover, as noted above, 
prototype testing costs are expected to decline after the first year of 
the standard.
    The proposed standard references an effective date of twelve months 
following publication of a final rule. The costs reported here are 
based on the assumption that supplier companies will be able to 
maintain existing capacity. If federal standards for bedclothes and 
upholstered furniture were mandated at the same time and input 
producers were not given enough time to increase their capacity, input 
prices would rise in the short-run because of increased demand for the 
FR material used by all three industries.
    Unquantifiable Costs. A mattress manufacturer indicated that in 
response to an FR mattress standard, the number of models/styles 
produced may be cut by half. If this response is typical, then there 
may be a reduction in consumers' utility, because of the reduction in 
mattress types that they would have to choose from. Others indicate 
that there will be an aversion to producing double-sided mattresses, 
because it would be harder for them to pass the burn test. Double-sided 
mattresses possibly have a longer expected life than single-sided ones. 
To the extent that consumers prefer double-sided mattresses to single-
sided mattresses, the shift away from producing double-sided mattresses 
imposes a non-monetary cost. Though unquantifiable, this reduction in 
choices of construction type and design is an added cost to consumers 
of the proposed standard.
    Another unquantifiable cost is the possible increase in liability 
insurance faced by mattress manufacturers. Because the draft proposed 
standard measures the performance of the entire mattress when exposed 
to fire, and not its individual components, liability will be shared by 
input suppliers and mattress manufacturers. Industry representatives 
expect that manufacturers' liability insurance will increase to reflect 
the additional possibility of litigation. This increase, however, 
cannot be quantified because of the novelty of this performance test. 
Compliance of more mattress firms with the California TB 603 standard 
may enable us to estimate the additional liability insurance. Notice 
that any increase in liability insurance faced by FR input suppliers 
will be included in the price charged for the FR inputs and does not 
add to the total increase in resource cost that is expected to result 
from the proposed standard.

8. Benefits and Costs of the Proposed Standard

    This section compares benefits and costs of the proposed standard, 
presents a sensitivity analysis, and highlights the impact of the 
proposed standard on retail prices, small businesses, children, and the 
environment. The sensitivity analysis examines the effect of changing 
some of the assumptions used earlier. The analysis shows that net 
benefits continue to be positive under a reasonable range of 
assumptions about the death and injury effectiveness of the proposed 
standard, the reduction in injuries resulting from the proposed 
standard, the value of a statistical life estimate, the discount rate, 
or the expected mattress life.
    The expected aggregate lifetime benefits associated with one year's 
production of mattresses (25.3 million units) using a discount rate of 
three percent and an expected 10-year mattress life are $1.56 to $1.88 
billion ($61.66 to $74.25 per mattress x 25.3 million mattresses). The 
corresponding expected aggregate costs of the proposed standard are 
$0.32 to $1.11 billion ($12.63 to $43.86 times 25.3 million). The 
resulting net aggregate benefits equal $0.45 to $1.56 billion ($17.79 
to $61.62 times 25.3 million). For a mattress life of 14 years (and a 3 
percent discount rate), aggregate lifetime benefits, costs, and net 
benefits of the proposed standard associated with one year of 
production are $1.52 to $1.92, $0.32 to $1.11, and $0.41 to $1.60 
billion respectively. The expected benefits of the proposed standard 
will accrue for a long period of time and discounted net benefits will, 
therefore, be much greater than net benefits associated with only the 
mattress production in the first year the standard becomes effective.
    Sensitivity Analysis. The previous analysis compares benefits and 
costs of the proposed standard using expected mattress lives of 10 and 
14 years, a discount rate of 3 percent, an expected effectiveness rate 
of the proposed standard of 80 to 86 percent of deaths and 86 to 92 
percent of injuries, an estimated value of a statistical life of 5 
million dollars, and an estimated cost of injury of $179,300. This 
section examines the effect of changing any of these assumptions on the 
expected net benefits of the proposed standard.
    Comparing expected benefits and costs of the proposed standard, it 
is clear that net benefits are expected to be positive (i.e., expected 
total benefits exceed expected costs) for an average mattress life of 
10 or 14 years. Though increasing the expected mattress life from 10 to 
14 years, while using the 3 percent discount rate, expands the positive 
range of net benefits, it does not affect the conclusion regarding net 
benefits. A further increase of the expected life of a mattress 
similarly would not affect the estimate of net benefits. For example, 
using the Product Population Model estimate of the number of mattresses 
in use based on an expected mattress life of 18 years (equal to 367.1 
million mattresses) yields net benefits of $14.42 to $64.49 per 
mattress, using a discount rate of 3 percent.
    Net benefits are also positive using discount rates of 3 and 7 
percent. Using a 3 percent discount rate, net benefits per mattress 
equal $17.79 to $61.62 for an average life of 10 years and $16.01 to 
$63.08 for an average life of 14 years. Using a 7 percent discount 
rate, net benefits per mattress equal $9.36 to $50.88 for an average 
life of 10 years and $5.15 to $48.26 for an average life of 14 years. 
Assuming a larger discount rate reduces net benefits, because future 
benefits reaped over the life of the mattress contribute less to total 
benefits.
    Net benefits are based on an estimated value of a statistical life 
equal to $5 million. Changing the estimate used for the value of a 
statistical life does not have a major impact on the results. For 
example, if $3 million, the lower bound estimate in Viscusi (1993), is 
used as an estimate of the value of a statistical life, net benefits 
become -$2.90 to $36.73 per mattress (using a 3 percent discount rate 
and an estimated mattress life of 10 years).\7\ Alternatively, a $7 
million estimate, the higher bound estimate in Viscusi (1993), yields 
net benefits equal to $38.48 to $86.51 per mattress (using a 3 percent 
discount rate and an estimated mattress life of 10 years).
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    \7\ The range for net benefits was derived by subtracting the 
upper end of the cost range from the lower end of the benefits range 
to get the lower end of the range for net benefits and subtracting 
the lower end of the cost range from the higher end of the benefits 
range to get the higher end of the range for net benefits. Because 
of this method, both ends of the range for net benefits are a very 
unlikely occurrence.
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    Changing the estimate used for the cost of injury will have minimal 
impact on the results, because the share of benefits from reduced 
injuries is 16 percent of total benefits. Hence, even if there were no 
reduction in injuries from the proposed standard, the net benefits 
would be $7.86 to $49.59 per mattress (using a mattress life of 10 
years and a 3 percent discount rate).
    The analysis assumes that the effectiveness of the proposed 
standard ranges from 80 to 86 percent for deaths and 86 to 92 percent 
for injuries. The

[[Page 2486]]

net benefits will remain positive, with a lower effectiveness rate. For 
example, assuming an effectiveness rate of preventing death of only 55 
percent yields net benefits of $1.86 to $39.84 per mattress and 
aggregate net benefits of 50 million to 1.01 billion dollars from all 
mattresses produced the first year the proposed standard is mandated 
(using a mattress life of 10 years, a 3 percent discount rate, and the 
same effectiveness for injuries as used in the baseline analysis). 
Also, assuming a smaller number of deaths and injuries before the 
proposed standard is mandated (a smaller baseline risk) would still 
result in positive net benefits. A 25 percent reduction in baseline 
death and injury risks yields net benefits of $2.38 to $43.06 per 
mattress and aggregate net benefits of $60 million to $1.09 billion 
from all mattresses produced the first year the mattress standard is 
mandated (using a mattress life of 10 years, a 3 percent discount rate, 
and the estimated effectiveness measures used in the baseline 
analysis).
    Impact on Retail Prices. One of the top four mattress manufacturers 
in the industry has re-merchandised its product lines to lower the 
costs of other materials so that total costs (and prices) are the same 
as they were before the production of mattresses that comply with 
TB603. Other manufacturers have indicated that they will have to 
increase their price which, according to some manufacturers and based 
on reported traditional industry mark-ups, might translate to an 
increase in the retail price to consumers that could reach 
approximately four-fold the increase in manufacturer's costs. Hence the 
average increase in the price at which mattress manufacturers are 
willing to sell their products (supply price) will be anywhere betwee